KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 29 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

52%

47%

15%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

WN2NO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.85u · WN2 −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	46.4%	—	—	30.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	2.8%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	62.2%	—	—	46.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	2.9%	58.1%	—	—	54.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	25.2%	54.9%	6.3%	—	57.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	9.0%	52.2%	17.0%	—	44.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	35.8%	68.4%	7.6%	—	53.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	28.1%	2.3%	1.7%	—	46.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.1%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	12.0%	63.1%	17.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	5.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	9.7%	43.0%	5.9%	—	30.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	11.2%	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	8.3%	60.9%	7.3%	—	21.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	11.8%	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	12.1%	57.7%	5.9%	—	40.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	13.0%	57.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	9.8%	60.2%	3.2%	—	26.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	19.0%	41.6%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	30.1%	48.9%	3.8%	—	44.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	26.7%	47.8%	0.0%	—	42.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	26.0%	48.8%	2.2%	—	37.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	26.3%	47.6%	2.3%	—	41.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	26.6%	59.9%	4.9%	10.0%	48.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	24.8%	47.4%	6.8%	—	30.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	22.0%	54.0%	5.3%	9.5%	27.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	21.1%	39.0%	7.6%	—	33.8%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	30.5%	38.6%	10.8%	11.5%	40.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	22.4%	41.0%	7.0%	—	24.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	20.3%	33.1%	3.7%	7.1%	11.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.5%	33.9%	4.5%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	87.1°F	2.0°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	86.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	81.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗