KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 29 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

52%

47%

15%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

WN2NO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.85u · WN2 −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00	41.5%	47.5%	2.8%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	41.5%	47.5%	2.8%	59.5%	16.1%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	40.6%	47.5%	2.8%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	40.6%	47.5%	2.8%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	40.6%	47.5%	2.8%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	40.6%	47.5%	2.8%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	40.6%	47.5%	2.8%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	40.6%	47.5%	2.0%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	40.6%	47.5%	2.0%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	40.6%	47.5%	2.0%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	43.2%	47.5%	2.0%	32.4%	16.1%
2026-09-29T04:21:23+00:00	52.0%	75.5%	1.8%	46.8%	15.3%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	52.0%	75.5%	6.8%	46.8%	14.6%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	52.0%	75.5%	6.8%	46.8%	14.6%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	52.0%	75.5%	6.8%	46.8%	14.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	62%	87.1°F	2.0°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	86.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	81.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗