KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

45%

29%

29%

27%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

ICONNO 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.25u · ICON −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	13.9%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	55.2%	—	—	26.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	2.4%	81.5%	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	43.7%	76.5%	12.6%	—	61.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	17.9%	74.0%	37.1%	—	46.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	62.7%	87.1%	5.4%	—	54.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	17.4%	84.6%	2.4%	—	66.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	17.3%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	18.4%	21.9%	12.0%	—	59.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	13.2%	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	10.9%	33.8%	40.5%	—	64.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	21.5%	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	15.4%	60.9%	38.2%	—	72.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	18.4%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	19.0%	57.7%	46.1%	—	59.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	67.4%	53.0%	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	55.1%	53.1%	10.8%	19.0%	43.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	13.2%	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	59.7%	53.3%	4.7%	21.3%	55.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	52.2%	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	30.0%	19.1%	30.0%	19.9%	38.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	60.7%	48.8%	27.3%	—	67.5%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	43.8%	40.1%	32.0%	27.6%	65.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	65.1%	8.7%	15.8%	—	70.9%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	64.4%	24.0%	1.9%	24.0%	28.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	48.6%	16.4%	20.1%	—	51.4%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	37.2%	17.2%	7.3%	13.0%	41.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	38.1%	3.2%	2.2%	—	22.4%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	25.0%	1.8%	5.2%	37.6%	27.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.0%	0.3%	0.6%	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	92.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	89.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	86.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	86.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗