KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

45%

29%

29%

27%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

ICONNO 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.25u · ICON −41.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	68.0%	65.7%	58.1%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	68.0%	65.7%	58.1%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	68.0%	65.7%	58.1%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	68.0%	65.7%	58.1%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	68.0%	65.7%	58.1%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	68.0%	65.7%	51.6%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	68.0%	65.7%	51.6%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	68.0%	65.7%	51.6%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	57.8%	65.7%	51.6%	83.0%	62.4%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	64.0%	76.9%	48.2%	82.9%	39.2%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	64.0%	76.9%	48.2%	82.9%	39.2%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	64.0%	76.9%	48.2%	82.9%	39.2%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	64.0%	76.9%	48.2%	82.9%	75.7%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	64.0%	76.9%	48.2%	82.9%	75.7%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	64.0%	76.9%	48.2%	82.9%	75.7%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	64.0%	76.9%	48.2%	82.9%	75.7%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	19.9%	76.9%	48.2%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	19.9%	76.9%	48.2%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	19.9%	76.9%	48.2%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	19.9%	76.9%	48.2%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	19.9%	76.9%	48.2%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	19.9%	76.9%	44.7%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	19.9%	76.9%	44.7%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	19.9%	76.9%	44.7%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	57.5%	76.9%	44.7%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	57.5%	76.9%	44.7%	75.1%	75.7%
2026-10-01T03:11:22+00:00	41.4%	95.4%	50.0%	25.6%	26.6%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	41.4%	95.4%	50.0%	25.6%	26.6%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	41.4%	95.4%	50.0%	25.6%	26.6%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	41.4%	95.4%	65.3%	25.6%	26.6%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	41.4%	95.4%	65.3%	25.6%	26.6%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	41.4%	95.4%	65.3%	25.6%	26.6%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	33.7%	95.4%	65.3%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	33.7%	95.4%	65.3%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	33.7%	95.4%	65.3%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	33.7%	95.4%	65.3%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	33.7%	95.4%	65.3%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	33.7%	90.4%	59.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	33.7%	90.4%	59.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	33.7%	90.4%	59.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T13:44:44+00:00	48.0%	90.4%	59.2%	73.9%	26.6%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	48.0%	90.4%	59.2%	74.0%	26.6%
2026-10-02T03:20:55+00:00	32.8%	90.9%	42.0%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	32.8%	90.9%	42.0%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	32.8%	90.9%	42.0%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T05:36:46+00:00	32.8%	90.9%	29.1%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	32.8%	90.9%	29.1%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	32.8%	90.9%	29.1%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	28.8%	90.9%	29.1%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	28.8%	90.9%	29.1%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	28.8%	90.9%	29.1%	44.7%	26.6%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	28.8%	90.9%	29.1%	44.7%	26.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	92.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	89.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	86.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	86.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗