KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

50%

28%

13%

10%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

HRESNO 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.10u · HRES −54.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	30.3%	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	95.1%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	75.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	77.4%	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	14.7%	95.8%	—	—	58.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	74.8%	85.5%	5.1%	—	73.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	10.6%	54.4%	15.2%	—	74.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	12.5%	1.7%	20.0%	—	71.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	2.3%	11.9%	25.5%	—	61.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	7.0%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	1.6%	10.8%	48.3%	—	63.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	9.9%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	3.2%	16.7%	17.8%	—	33.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	35.9%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	17.2%	—	8.3%	0.9%	14.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.4%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	24.0%	64.3%	35.7%	—	10.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	10.5%	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	16.3%	4.0%	4.7%	1.8%	4.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	11.6%	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	11.9%	4.0%	15.5%	0.9%	9.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	53.5%	0.8%	2.4%	2.5%	6.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	19.1%	30.4%	6.6%	—	1.9%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.3%	13.7%	0.7%	13.0%	3.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.8%	46.1%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.6%	0.1%	1.2%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.0%	39.0%	3.0%	—	3.2%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	55.8%	13.8%	0.4%	13.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.5%	59.0%	6.0%	—	9.9%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	45.3%	3.1%	0.1%	0.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	6.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	88.0°F	7.1°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	81.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	80.7°F	7.8°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
ICON	28%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	76.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	75.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗