KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

50%

28%

13%

10%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

HRESNO 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.10u · HRES −54.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00	27.0%	78.6%	54.1%	94.5%	78.7%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	27.0%	78.6%	54.1%	94.5%	78.7%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	27.0%	78.6%	54.1%	94.5%	29.6%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	27.0%	78.6%	70.3%	94.5%	29.6%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	27.0%	78.6%	70.3%	94.5%	29.6%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	27.0%	78.6%	70.3%	94.5%	29.6%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	15.5%	78.6%	70.3%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	15.5%	78.6%	70.3%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	15.5%	78.6%	70.3%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	15.5%	78.6%	70.3%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	15.5%	78.6%	70.3%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	70.1%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	70.1%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	70.1%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	70.1%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T14:40:06+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	70.1%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	70.1%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	70.1%	95.4%	29.6%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	79.2%	95.4%	33.7%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	79.2%	95.4%	33.7%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	79.2%	95.4%	33.7%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	15.5%	91.3%	79.2%	95.4%	33.7%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	27.4%	91.3%	79.2%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	27.4%	91.3%	79.2%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	27.4%	91.3%	79.2%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	27.4%	91.3%	79.2%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	27.4%	91.5%	86.9%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	27.4%	91.5%	86.9%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	27.4%	91.5%	86.9%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	27.4%	91.5%	86.9%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	40.3%	91.5%	86.9%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	40.3%	91.5%	86.9%	97.6%	33.7%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	23.9%	86.7%	88.8%	34.6%	9.3%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	23.9%	86.7%	88.8%	34.6%	9.3%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	23.9%	86.7%	88.8%	34.6%	9.3%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	23.9%	86.7%	88.8%	34.6%	8.4%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	23.9%	86.7%	88.8%	34.6%	8.4%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	23.9%	86.7%	88.8%	34.6%	8.4%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	23.9%	86.7%	88.8%	34.6%	8.4%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	28.5%	86.7%	88.8%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	28.5%	86.7%	88.8%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	28.5%	86.7%	88.8%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	28.5%	86.7%	88.8%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	28.5%	86.7%	83.6%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	28.5%	86.7%	83.6%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	28.5%	86.7%	83.6%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	28.5%	86.7%	83.6%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	32.0%	86.7%	83.6%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	32.0%	86.7%	83.6%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	32.0%	86.7%	83.6%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	32.0%	86.7%	83.6%	58.9%	8.4%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	32.0%	86.7%	83.0%	58.9%	6.9%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	32.0%	86.7%	83.0%	58.9%	6.9%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	32.0%	86.7%	83.0%	58.9%	6.9%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	24.5%	86.7%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	24.5%	86.7%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	24.5%	86.7%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	24.5%	86.7%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	24.5%	86.7%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	24.5%	81.6%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	24.5%	81.6%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	24.5%	81.6%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	30.2%	81.6%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	30.2%	81.6%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	30.2%	82.0%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	30.2%	82.0%	83.0%	7.6%	6.9%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	30.2%	82.0%	83.0%	7.6%	28.4%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	30.2%	82.0%	71.1%	7.6%	28.4%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	30.2%	82.0%	71.1%	7.6%	28.4%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	30.2%	82.0%	71.1%	7.6%	28.4%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	19.4%	82.0%	71.1%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	19.4%	82.0%	71.1%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	19.4%	82.0%	71.1%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	19.4%	82.0%	71.1%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	19.4%	82.0%	71.1%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	19.4%	82.0%	50.0%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	19.4%	82.0%	50.0%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	19.4%	82.0%	50.0%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	12.6%	82.0%	50.0%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	12.6%	82.0%	50.0%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	12.6%	82.0%	50.0%	9.8%	28.4%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	12.6%	82.0%	50.0%	9.8%	28.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	88.0°F	7.1°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	81.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	80.7°F	7.8°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
ICON	28%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	76.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	75.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗