KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 30 · 22:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.65u

HRESNO 78.3¢Risks 78.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.35u · HRES −78.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	10.6%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	81.5%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	53.1%	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	47.4%	—	—	46.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.9%	81.1%	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	41.6%	57.0%	0.6%	—	40.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	21.0%	2.6%	—	39.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.8%	0.1%	3.6%	—	35.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	1.5%	4.9%	—	23.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	1.1%	13.8%	—	23.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.9%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	1.9%	2.2%	—	6.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.9%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	—	0.5%	0.0%	1.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.7%	19.7%	5.6%	—	0.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	2.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	4.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	4.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	4.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	43%	85.2°F	7.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	77.8°F	6.6°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	78.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	75.4°F	4.3°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	74.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗