KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 30 · 22:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.65u

HRESNO 78.3¢Risks 78.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.35u · HRES −78.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00	6.5%	55.7%	17.8%	79.3%	61.2%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	6.5%	55.7%	17.8%	79.3%	61.2%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	6.5%	55.7%	17.8%	79.3%	10.4%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	6.5%	55.7%	31.1%	79.3%	10.4%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	6.5%	55.7%	31.1%	79.3%	10.4%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	6.5%	55.7%	31.1%	79.3%	10.4%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	2.5%	55.7%	31.1%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	2.5%	55.7%	31.1%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	2.5%	55.7%	31.1%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	2.5%	55.7%	31.1%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	2.5%	55.7%	31.1%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	28.3%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	28.3%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	28.3%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	28.3%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T14:40:06+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	28.3%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	28.3%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	28.3%	82.5%	10.4%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	38.7%	82.5%	12.6%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	38.7%	82.5%	12.6%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	38.7%	82.5%	12.6%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	2.5%	70.5%	38.7%	82.5%	12.6%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	6.2%	70.5%	38.7%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	6.2%	70.5%	38.7%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	6.2%	70.5%	38.7%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	6.2%	70.5%	38.7%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	6.2%	71.1%	50.9%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	6.2%	71.1%	50.9%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	6.2%	71.1%	50.9%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	6.2%	71.1%	50.9%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	11.8%	71.1%	50.9%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	11.8%	71.1%	50.9%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	11.8%	71.1%	50.9%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	11.8%	71.1%	50.9%	88.9%	12.6%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	11.8%	71.1%	56.1%	88.9%	1.4%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	11.8%	71.1%	56.1%	88.9%	1.4%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	11.8%	71.1%	56.1%	88.9%	1.4%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	11.8%	71.1%	56.1%	88.9%	1.4%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	4.6%	71.1%	56.1%	10.5%	1.4%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	4.6%	71.1%	56.1%	10.5%	1.4%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	4.6%	71.1%	56.1%	10.5%	1.4%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	4.6%	71.1%	56.1%	10.5%	1.4%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	4.6%	65.9%	50.9%	10.5%	1.4%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	4.6%	65.9%	50.9%	10.5%	1.4%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	4.6%	65.9%	50.9%	10.5%	1.4%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	4.6%	65.9%	50.9%	10.5%	1.4%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	4.2%	65.9%	50.9%	10.4%	1.4%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	4.2%	65.9%	50.9%	10.4%	1.4%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	4.2%	65.9%	50.9%	10.4%	1.4%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	4.2%	65.9%	50.9%	10.4%	1.4%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	4.2%	65.9%	50.9%	10.4%	1.3%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	4.2%	65.9%	50.9%	10.4%	1.3%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	4.2%	65.9%	50.9%	10.4%	1.3%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	4.2%	65.9%	50.9%	10.4%	1.3%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	5.7%	65.9%	50.9%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	5.7%	65.9%	50.9%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	5.7%	65.9%	50.9%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	5.7%	65.9%	50.9%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	5.7%	65.9%	41.5%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	5.7%	65.9%	41.5%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	5.7%	65.9%	41.5%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	5.7%	65.9%	41.5%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	6.9%	65.9%	41.5%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	6.9%	65.9%	41.5%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	6.9%	65.9%	41.5%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	6.9%	65.9%	41.5%	26.2%	1.3%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	6.9%	65.9%	40.6%	26.2%	0.6%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	6.9%	65.9%	40.6%	26.2%	0.6%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	6.9%	65.9%	40.6%	26.2%	0.6%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	3.8%	65.9%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	3.8%	65.9%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	3.8%	65.9%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	3.8%	65.9%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	3.8%	65.9%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	3.8%	57.8%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	3.8%	57.8%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	3.8%	57.8%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	5.5%	57.8%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	5.5%	57.8%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	5.5%	58.4%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	5.5%	58.4%	40.6%	0.8%	0.6%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	5.5%	58.4%	40.6%	0.8%	5.2%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	5.5%	58.4%	23.9%	0.8%	5.2%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	5.5%	58.4%	23.9%	0.8%	5.2%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	5.5%	58.4%	23.9%	0.8%	5.2%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	2.6%	58.4%	23.9%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	2.6%	58.4%	23.9%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	2.6%	58.4%	23.9%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	2.6%	58.4%	23.9%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	2.6%	58.4%	23.9%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	2.6%	58.4%	10.3%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	2.6%	58.4%	10.3%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	2.6%	58.4%	10.3%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	10.3%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	10.3%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	10.3%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	10.3%	1.1%	5.2%
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	10.3%	1.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	11.7%	1.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	11.7%	1.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	11.7%	1.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	11.7%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	11.7%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	11.7%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	1.3%	58.4%	11.7%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T10:34:41+00:00	0.4%	58.4%	11.7%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	0.4%	42.8%	8.4%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	0.4%	42.8%	8.4%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	0.4%	42.8%	8.4%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	0.4%	42.8%	8.4%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	0.3%	42.9%	8.5%	0.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	0.5%	42.9%	12.9%	0.4%	1.6%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	0.5%	42.9%	12.9%	0.4%	1.6%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	0.5%	42.9%	12.9%	0.4%	1.6%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	0.5%	42.9%	12.9%	0.4%	1.6%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	0.5%	42.9%	12.9%	0.4%	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	43%	85.2°F	7.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	77.8°F	6.6°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	78.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	75.4°F	4.3°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	74.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗