KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 18:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.8¢Risks 20.85u

HRESNO 79.1¢Risks 79.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.15u · HRES −79.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	67.0%	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	34.7%	—	—	28.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	28.9%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.8%	64.5%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	23.0%	36.2%	0.1%	—	21.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	8.7%	0.6%	—	20.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.9%	—	16.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	1.2%	—	9.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	4.3%	—	9.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	—	1.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	5.6%	1.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	42%	88.0°F	7.1°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	80.7°F	7.8°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	74.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 26 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗