KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 18:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 20.8¢Risks 20.85u

HRESNO 79.1¢Risks 79.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +79.15u · HRES −79.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	5.1%	47.4%	18.9%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	5.1%	47.4%	18.9%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	5.1%	47.4%	18.9%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	5.1%	47.4%	18.9%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	5.1%	47.4%	18.9%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T11:29:17+00:00	5.1%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	5.1%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	5.1%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	5.7%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	5.7%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	5.7%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	5.7%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	14.9%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	5.7%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	5.7%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	5.7%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	5.7%	40.3%	7.2%	41.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	3.9%	40.3%	7.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	3.9%	40.3%	7.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	3.9%	40.3%	7.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	3.9%	40.3%	7.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	3.9%	40.3%	7.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	3.9%	40.3%	6.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	3.9%	40.3%	6.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	3.9%	40.3%	6.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	2.0%	40.3%	6.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	2.0%	40.3%	6.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-27T03:19:47+00:00	2.0%	40.3%	6.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	2.0%	40.3%	6.2%	63.5%	49.2%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	2.0%	40.3%	6.2%	63.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	2.0%	40.3%	13.4%	63.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	2.0%	40.3%	13.4%	63.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	2.0%	40.3%	13.4%	63.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	0.6%	40.3%	13.4%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	0.6%	40.3%	13.4%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	0.6%	40.3%	13.4%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	0.6%	40.3%	13.4%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	0.6%	40.3%	13.4%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	10.9%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	10.9%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	10.9%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	10.9%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T14:40:06+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	10.9%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	10.9%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	10.9%	68.5%	4.5%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	17.2%	68.5%	5.7%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	17.2%	68.5%	5.7%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	17.2%	68.5%	5.7%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	0.6%	52.0%	17.2%	68.5%	5.7%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	1.8%	52.0%	17.2%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	1.8%	52.0%	17.2%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	1.8%	52.0%	17.2%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	1.8%	52.0%	17.2%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	1.8%	52.6%	26.1%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	1.8%	52.6%	26.1%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	1.8%	52.6%	26.1%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	1.8%	52.6%	26.1%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	4.0%	52.6%	26.1%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	4.0%	52.6%	26.1%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	4.0%	52.6%	26.1%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	4.0%	52.6%	26.1%	77.9%	5.7%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	4.0%	52.6%	30.6%	77.9%	0.3%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	4.0%	52.6%	30.6%	77.9%	0.3%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	4.0%	52.6%	30.6%	77.9%	0.3%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	4.0%	52.6%	30.6%	77.9%	0.3%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	1.1%	52.6%	30.6%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	1.1%	52.6%	30.6%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	1.1%	52.6%	30.6%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	1.1%	52.6%	30.6%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	1.1%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	1.1%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	1.1%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	1.1%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	1.0%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	1.0%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	1.0%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	1.0%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	1.0%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	1.0%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	1.0%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	1.0%	49.4%	24.5%	3.8%	0.3%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	1.4%	49.4%	24.5%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	1.4%	49.4%	24.5%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	1.4%	49.4%	24.5%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	1.4%	49.4%	24.5%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	1.4%	49.4%	17.7%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	1.4%	49.4%	17.7%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	1.4%	49.4%	17.7%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	1.4%	49.4%	17.7%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	1.8%	49.4%	17.7%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	1.8%	49.4%	17.7%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	1.8%	49.4%	17.7%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	1.8%	49.4%	17.7%	12.4%	0.3%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	1.8%	49.4%	17.0%	12.4%	0.1%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	1.8%	49.4%	17.0%	12.4%	0.1%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	1.8%	49.4%	17.0%	12.4%	0.1%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	1.2%	41.6%	17.0%	0.1%	1.2%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	1.2%	41.6%	7.1%	0.1%	1.2%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	1.2%	41.6%	7.1%	0.1%	1.2%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	1.2%	41.6%	7.1%	0.1%	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	42%	88.0°F	7.1°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	80.7°F	7.8°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	74.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 26 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗