KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.1¢Risks 3.05u

ICONNO 93.9¢Risks 46.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.95u · ICON −46.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	10.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	14.7%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	14.8%	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.0%	6.2%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.6%	5.2%	3.5%	—	20.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.9%	3.9%	5.3%	—	8.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	9.3%	0.5%	—	4.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.5%	2.0%	1.7%	—	1.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.7%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.7%	—	1.2%	1.6%	0.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.0%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	23.4%	1.7%	—	0.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.1%	0.6%	5.3%	—	0.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	1.0%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.1%	2.4%	0.1%	0.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.3%	1.9%	0.1%	0.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	4.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.9%	1.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	0.7%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	3.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	12%	81.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	80.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	80.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	75.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 27 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗