KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 6.1¢Risks 3.05u

ICONNO 93.9¢Risks 46.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.95u · ICON −46.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	3.9%	36.9%	23.9%	19.4%	20.4%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	3.9%	36.9%	23.9%	19.4%	20.4%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	3.9%	36.9%	23.9%	19.4%	20.4%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	3.9%	36.9%	23.9%	19.4%	20.4%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	3.9%	36.9%	23.9%	19.4%	20.4%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	3.9%	42.5%	21.8%	19.4%	20.4%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	3.9%	42.5%	21.8%	19.4%	20.4%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	3.9%	42.5%	21.8%	19.4%	20.4%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	4.5%	42.5%	21.8%	18.9%	20.4%
2026-09-27T14:40:06+00:00	4.5%	42.5%	21.8%	18.9%	20.4%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	4.5%	42.0%	21.8%	18.9%	20.4%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	4.5%	42.0%	21.8%	18.9%	20.4%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	4.5%	42.0%	29.7%	18.9%	23.7%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	4.5%	42.0%	29.7%	18.9%	23.7%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	4.5%	42.0%	29.7%	18.9%	23.7%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	4.5%	42.0%	29.7%	18.9%	23.7%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	11.4%	42.0%	29.7%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	11.4%	42.0%	29.7%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	11.4%	42.0%	29.7%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	11.4%	42.0%	29.7%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	11.4%	43.0%	37.9%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	11.4%	43.0%	37.9%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	11.4%	43.0%	37.9%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	11.4%	43.0%	37.9%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	10.1%	43.0%	37.9%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	10.1%	43.0%	37.9%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	10.1%	43.0%	37.9%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	10.1%	43.0%	37.9%	65.3%	23.7%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	10.1%	43.0%	43.5%	65.3%	7.6%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	10.1%	43.0%	43.5%	65.3%	7.6%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	10.1%	43.0%	43.5%	65.3%	7.6%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	10.1%	43.0%	43.5%	65.3%	7.6%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	7.9%	43.0%	43.5%	21.2%	7.6%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	7.9%	43.0%	43.5%	21.2%	7.6%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	7.9%	43.0%	43.5%	21.2%	7.6%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	7.9%	43.0%	43.5%	21.2%	7.6%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	7.9%	33.7%	37.1%	21.2%	7.6%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	7.9%	33.7%	37.1%	21.2%	7.6%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	7.9%	33.7%	37.1%	21.2%	7.6%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	7.9%	33.7%	37.1%	21.2%	7.6%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	6.4%	33.7%	37.1%	21.2%	7.5%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	6.4%	33.7%	37.1%	21.2%	7.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	6.4%	34.2%	37.1%	21.2%	7.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	6.4%	34.2%	37.1%	21.2%	7.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	6.4%	34.2%	36.2%	21.2%	0.7%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	6.4%	34.2%	36.2%	21.2%	0.7%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	6.4%	34.2%	36.2%	21.2%	0.7%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	6.4%	34.2%	36.2%	21.2%	0.7%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	6.1%	34.2%	36.2%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	6.1%	34.2%	36.2%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	6.1%	34.2%	36.2%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	6.1%	34.2%	36.2%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	6.1%	34.0%	30.6%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	6.1%	34.0%	30.6%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	6.1%	34.0%	30.6%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	6.1%	34.0%	30.6%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	4.3%	34.0%	30.6%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	4.3%	34.0%	30.6%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	4.3%	34.0%	30.6%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	4.3%	34.0%	30.6%	25.3%	0.7%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	4.3%	34.0%	23.4%	25.3%	3.4%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	4.3%	34.0%	23.4%	25.3%	3.4%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	4.3%	34.0%	23.4%	25.3%	3.4%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	10.8%	34.0%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	10.8%	34.0%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	10.8%	34.0%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	10.8%	34.0%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	10.8%	34.0%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	10.8%	17.7%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	10.8%	17.7%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	10.8%	17.7%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	9.4%	17.7%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	9.3%	17.7%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	9.3%	18.2%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	9.3%	18.2%	23.4%	7.9%	3.4%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	9.3%	18.2%	23.4%	7.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	9.3%	18.2%	13.2%	7.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	9.3%	18.2%	13.2%	7.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	9.3%	18.2%	13.2%	7.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	16.0%	18.2%	13.2%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	16.0%	18.2%	13.2%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	16.0%	18.2%	13.2%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	16.0%	18.2%	13.2%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	16.0%	18.2%	13.2%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	16.0%	18.6%	6.1%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	16.0%	18.6%	6.1%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	16.0%	18.6%	6.1%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	6.1%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	6.1%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	6.1%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	6.1%	1.9%	5.3%
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	6.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	7.7%	1.9%	0.0%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	7.7%	1.9%	0.0%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	7.7%	1.9%	0.0%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	7.7%	10.5%	0.0%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	7.7%	10.5%	0.0%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	7.7%	10.5%	0.0%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	22.0%	18.6%	7.7%	10.5%	0.0%
2026-09-30T10:34:41+00:00	10.1%	18.6%	7.7%	10.5%	0.0%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	6.2%	10.5%	0.4%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	9.0%	10.5%	0.4%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	9.0%	10.5%	0.4%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	9.0%	10.5%	0.4%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	11.7%	7.1%	9.0%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	11.7%	7.1%	9.0%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	11.7%	7.1%	9.0%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	11.7%	7.1%	9.0%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	11.7%	7.1%	9.0%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	11.7%	7.1%	7.2%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	11.7%	7.1%	7.2%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	11.7%	7.1%	7.2%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	7.2%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	7.2%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T03:11:22+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	7.2%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	7.2%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	7.2%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	11.8%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	11.8%	10.1%	0.4%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	8.3%	7.1%	11.8%	10.1%	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	12%	81.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	80.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	80.1°F	4.6°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	75.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 27 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗