KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 30 · 15:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

82%

81%

65%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.6¢Risks 76.55u

ICONNO 23.4¢Risks 23.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.45u · ICON −23.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	33.5%	—	—	39.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	29.2%	—	—	34.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	9.8%	—	—	41.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	59.7%	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	25.4%	31.8%	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	9.0%	57.7%	9.6%	—	45.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	62.9%	38.5%	57.3%	—	41.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	12.2%	—	16.4%	33.7%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	50.0%	63.3%	86.0%	—	47.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	6.5%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	29.3%	50.0%	72.8%	—	46.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	22.0%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	31.4%	55.2%	62.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	88.1%	59.1%	47.2%	45.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	84.7%	54.9%	—	39.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	81.7%	50.0%	—	31.2%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	75.5%	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	56.5%	89.1%	46.7%	—	47.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	65.4%	90.8%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	62.6%	91.5%	38.5%	—	40.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	58.4%	87.4%	38.1%	—	35.9%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	63.4%	89.4%	47.5%	70.2%	47.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	62.7%	91.3%	56.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	70.5%	93.0%	50.0%	59.3%	44.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	76.8%	94.2%	56.9%	—	55.6%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	84.6%	96.8%	70.7%	72.0%	64.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	88.0%	97.8%	71.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	83.9%	96.9%	60.9%	62.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	92.1%	97.4%	77.2%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	80.1°F	3.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	82.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	80.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	74.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗