KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Sep 30 · 15:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

82%

81%

65%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.6¢Risks 76.55u

ICONNO 23.4¢Risks 23.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.45u · ICON −23.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	72.1%	70.5%	63.6%	50.6%	76.2%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	72.1%	70.5%	63.6%	50.6%	33.1%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	72.1%	70.5%	72.4%	50.6%	33.1%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	72.1%	70.5%	72.4%	50.6%	33.1%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	72.1%	70.5%	72.4%	50.6%	33.1%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	83.2%	70.5%	72.4%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	83.2%	70.5%	72.4%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	83.2%	70.5%	72.4%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	83.2%	70.5%	72.4%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	83.2%	70.5%	72.4%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	83.2%	71.3%	67.8%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	83.2%	71.3%	67.8%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	83.2%	71.3%	67.8%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	67.8%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	67.8%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	67.8%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	67.8%	27.3%	33.1%
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	67.8%	27.3%	65.4%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	76.6%	27.3%	65.4%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	76.6%	27.3%	65.4%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	76.6%	27.3%	65.4%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	76.6%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	76.6%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	76.6%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	88.3%	71.3%	76.6%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T10:34:41+00:00	90.3%	71.3%	76.6%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	90.3%	87.1%	81.1%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	90.3%	87.1%	81.1%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	90.3%	87.1%	81.1%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	86.8%	87.1%	81.1%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	86.8%	87.1%	81.1%	81.5%	65.4%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	86.8%	87.7%	81.1%	81.5%	65.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	80.1°F	3.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	82.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	80.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	74.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗