KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 01 · 14:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

79%

74%

65%

58%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.6¢Risks 71.65u

WN2NO 28.4¢Risks 28.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.35u · WN2 −28.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	1.8%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	54.8%	—	—	47.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	14.6%	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	35.4%	—	—	43.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	28.8%	39.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	2.1%	—	5.2%	29.8%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	44.2%	42.7%	62.3%	—	44.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	45.4%	24.5%	43.9%	—	55.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	44.4%	17.9%	58.7%	—	50.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	83.8%	66.2%	73.5%	54.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	77.9%	47.4%	—	54.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	71.0%	50.0%	—	44.5%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	72.4%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	64.3%	92.1%	44.2%	—	66.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	79.6%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	72.4%	98.0%	39.8%	—	70.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	78.7%	99.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	69.9%	97.9%	38.2%	4.0%	66.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	76.0%	98.6%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	72.0%	97.1%	38.5%	1.2%	64.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	77.5%	98.7%	44.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	81.8%	99.0%	46.3%	84.9%	72.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	77.2%	98.7%	48.7%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	66.9%	98.6%	38.1%	81.8%	65.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	78.9%	97.5%	44.4%	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	91.1%	98.2%	54.3%	93.7%	81.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	94.8%	98.6%	47.0%	—	74.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	94.3%	98.9%	37.6%	94.3%	75.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	96.9%	99.2%	63.0%	—	94.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	80.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	80.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	79.1°F	6.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	77.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	77.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 29 · 11:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗