KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 01 · 14:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

79%

74%

65%

58%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.6¢Risks 71.65u

WN2NO 28.4¢Risks 28.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.35u · WN2 −28.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	54.3%	69.9%	29.6%	28.5%	52.9%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	54.3%	69.9%	29.6%	28.5%	52.9%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	54.3%	69.9%	29.6%	28.5%	52.9%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	38.7%	69.9%	29.6%	28.5%	52.9%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	38.7%	69.9%	29.6%	28.5%	52.9%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	38.7%	70.7%	29.6%	28.5%	52.9%
2026-09-29T15:42:16+00:00	38.7%	70.7%	29.6%	28.5%	52.9%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	38.7%	70.7%	29.6%	28.5%	22.1%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	38.7%	70.7%	47.5%	28.5%	22.1%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	38.7%	70.7%	47.5%	28.5%	22.1%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	38.7%	70.7%	47.5%	28.5%	22.1%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	64.7%	70.7%	47.5%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	64.7%	70.7%	47.5%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	64.7%	70.7%	47.5%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	64.7%	70.7%	47.5%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	64.7%	70.7%	47.5%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	64.7%	72.0%	50.8%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	64.7%	72.0%	50.8%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	64.7%	72.0%	50.8%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	50.8%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	50.8%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	50.8%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	50.8%	24.4%	65.9%
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	50.8%	24.4%	63.1%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	63.6%	24.4%	63.1%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	63.6%	24.4%	63.1%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	63.6%	24.4%	63.1%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	63.6%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	63.6%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	63.6%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	71.8%	72.0%	63.6%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T10:34:41+00:00	87.1%	72.0%	63.6%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	87.1%	79.1%	67.8%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	87.1%	79.1%	67.8%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	87.1%	79.1%	67.8%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	74.5%	79.1%	67.8%	65.8%	63.1%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	74.5%	78.8%	67.8%	65.9%	63.7%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	74.5%	79.3%	67.8%	65.9%	63.7%
2026-09-30T15:53:29+00:00	74.5%	79.3%	67.8%	65.9%	63.7%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	74.5%	79.3%	67.8%	65.9%	64.7%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	74.5%	79.3%	57.0%	65.9%	64.7%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	74.5%	79.3%	57.0%	65.9%	64.7%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	74.5%	79.3%	57.0%	65.9%	64.7%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	87.5%	79.3%	57.0%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	87.5%	79.3%	57.0%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	87.5%	79.3%	57.0%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	87.5%	79.3%	57.0%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	87.5%	79.3%	57.0%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	87.5%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	87.5%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	87.5%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	83.2%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	83.2%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T03:11:23+00:00	83.2%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	83.2%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	83.2%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	83.2%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	83.2%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	83.2%	80.0%	62.1%	70.7%	64.7%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	82.0%	80.0%	62.1%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	82.0%	80.0%	62.1%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	82.0%	80.0%	62.1%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	82.0%	80.0%	62.1%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	82.0%	80.0%	62.1%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	82.0%	84.8%	58.5%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	82.0%	84.8%	58.5%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	82.0%	84.8%	58.5%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T13:44:44+00:00	79.2%	84.8%	58.5%	73.8%	64.7%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	79.2%	84.8%	58.5%	73.9%	64.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	80.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	80.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	80.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	79.1°F	6.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	77.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	77.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 29 · 11:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗