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KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
12%
HRES
6%
EPS
4%
ICON
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.9¢Risks 3.45u
VS
WN2NO 93.1¢Risks 46.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.55u · WN2 −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.9% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.7% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.9% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.7% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.3% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.4% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.8% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.7% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.7% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 10.4% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 4.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0009-21 06:0009-29 00:0010-06 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:005.3%—————
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%————4.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:005.9%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.6%————20.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:001.3%————12.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:0015.6%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:001.1%————8.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.2%————7.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:004.9%————7.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:0011.2%————6.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.1%————3.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:000.6%————7.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.4%————4.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.4%————4.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.6%—0.0%——5.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:005.7%—————
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:0014.7%—10.6%——7.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:001.8%—0.7%——4.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:001.3%—4.0%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.4%—3.2%——5.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.2%—5.7%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:001.8%1.8%3.6%——3.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:000.6%—2.2%———
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:003.1%0.0%—0.1%1.7%—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:004.2%—3.3%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:0010.9%3.6%3.3%9.0%—3.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:004.1%—4.1%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:0010.3%3.3%0.8%3.0%—5.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:007.1%—0.7%———
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:005.3%2.6%0.3%5.7%—3.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:003.9%—0.6%———
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:001.7%—18.4%7.1%10.4%3.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:001.9%—11.9%———
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:002.7%—11.3%2.1%—3.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:002.1%—7.8%———
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:002.8%—6.3%1.9%—1.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:003.0%6.1%10.0%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:004.6%3.4%21.8%1.0%—3.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:005.4%7.6%31.7%———
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:005.8%4.2%39.8%0.5%—3.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:005.8%5.5%48.9%——0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:005.0%2.6%33.1%0.3%0.0%2.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:004.8%3.3%36.7%0.0%——
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:004.5%2.1%23.3%0.2%0.0%1.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:003.3%2.5%31.4%0.2%—0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:002.3%2.8%30.9%0.2%3.7%1.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:002.1%1.5%24.8%0.2%——
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:001.2%0.5%20.0%0.0%1.7%0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:001.1%1.0%11.8%0.1%—0.4%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:001.5%2.7%12.2%0.1%4.0%0.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.4%3.7%11.2%0.0%—0.3%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.6%2.4%10.2%0.0%2.4%0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.0%3.1%9.2%0.0%—1.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast25%84.0°F2.2°F2026-10-06 14:00Pending
National Blend23%83.0°F3.4°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
AIFS Single12%82.0°F3.0°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
IFS HRES6%79.6°F3.7°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%81.1°F2.5°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
ICON1%78.0°F3.4°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%80.0°F2.5°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 29 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗