KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

30%

22%

14%

14%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.9¢Risks 27.95u

HRESNO 72.0¢Risks 72.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.05u · HRES −72.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	5.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	15.7%	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	11.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	1.4%	0.0%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	25.7%	2.4%	24.6%	13.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	34.3%	4.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	26.4%	5.6%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	11.1%	42.1%	2.9%	—	7.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	2.2%	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	3.1%	49.2%	0.2%	—	4.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	1.2%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	0.6%	46.5%	3.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	3.1%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	1.9%	40.9%	5.8%	—	7.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	3.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	3.5%	35.7%	2.1%	—	11.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	4.7%	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	2.6%	36.9%	2.8%	—	8.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	7.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	19.8%	28.2%	4.0%	44.5%	13.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	23.1%	43.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	24.2%	40.8%	5.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	28.3%	40.5%	2.5%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	23.6%	20.8%	4.6%	3.3%	8.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	11.5%	18.2%	2.2%	—	1.9%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	13.4%	17.3%	1.3%	5.7%	2.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	16.4%	18.2%	4.7%	—	4.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	22.2%	19.1%	4.7%	10.2%	5.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	22.4%	23.6%	2.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	16.1%	22.6%	2.6%	3.7%	0.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	18.1%	16.0%	3.7%	—	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	88.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	87.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	86.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	85.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	85.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	84.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗