KBNA / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

30%

22%

14%

14%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.9¢Risks 27.95u

HRESNO 72.0¢Risks 72.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.05u · HRES −72.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T04:07:50+00:00	40.9%	17.0%	18.6%	25.2%	3.9%
2026-10-06T04:53:30+00:00	40.9%	17.0%	36.0%	25.2%	3.9%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	40.9%	17.0%	36.0%	25.2%	3.9%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	40.9%	17.0%	36.0%	25.2%	3.9%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	40.9%	17.0%	36.0%	25.2%	3.9%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	45.2%	17.0%	36.0%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	45.2%	17.0%	36.0%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	45.2%	17.0%	36.0%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	45.2%	17.0%	36.0%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	45.2%	28.7%	29.2%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	45.2%	28.7%	29.2%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	45.2%	28.7%	29.2%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	45.2%	28.7%	29.2%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	44.2%	28.8%	29.2%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	44.2%	28.8%	29.2%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	44.2%	28.7%	29.2%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	44.2%	28.7%	29.2%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	44.2%	28.7%	15.1%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	44.2%	28.7%	15.1%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	44.2%	28.7%	15.1%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	44.2%	28.7%	15.1%	25.2%	16.8%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	45.2%	28.7%	15.1%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	45.2%	28.7%	15.1%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	45.2%	28.7%	15.1%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	45.2%	28.7%	15.1%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	45.2%	29.9%	14.4%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	45.2%	29.9%	14.4%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	45.2%	29.9%	14.4%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	45.2%	29.9%	14.4%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	42.3%	29.9%	14.4%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	42.3%	29.9%	14.4%	13.6%	22.3%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	42.3%	29.9%	14.4%	13.6%	22.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	88.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	87.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	86.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	85.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	85.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	84.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261008-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗