KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 02 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

72%

54%

46%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.45u

WN2NO 37.5¢Risks 37.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.55u · WN2 −37.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	1.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	27.8%	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	3.5%	—	—	23.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	59.0%	—	54.5%	34.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	71.8%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	74.3%	6.3%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	49.3%	79.5%	4.8%	—	39.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	34.4%	76.1%	4.6%	—	43.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	5.5%	72.6%	6.2%	—	39.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	0.6%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	11.2%	65.5%	20.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	2.0%	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	38.8%	79.2%	30.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	38.5%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	24.4%	66.1%	17.2%	—	36.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	31.8%	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	22.5%	63.4%	5.9%	4.6%	57.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	29.9%	81.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	44.9%	—	25.9%	—	55.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	59.5%	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	65.9%	73.6%	35.1%	84.5%	83.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	37.8%	77.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	71.0%	70.0%	43.0%	70.0%	76.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	89.2%	84.8%	29.3%	—	75.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	78.3%	87.6%	42.6%	62.3%	81.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	79.1%	73.1%	50.0%	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	66.9%	78.0%	52.7%	38.1%	50.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	68.8%	32.5%	48.6%	—	48.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	73.2%	50.0%	50.0%	52.9%	57.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	67.5%	22.4%	19.2%	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	66.8%	43.7%	13.4%	37.6%	20.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	45.1%	46.7%	4.1%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	89.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	72%	88.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	85.4°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	84.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	84.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 02 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 85°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗