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KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 02 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
79%
HRES
72%
EPS
54%
WN2
46%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.45u
VS
WN2NO 37.5¢Risks 37.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.55u · WN2 −37.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.9% · 2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.9% · 2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.9% · 2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.9% · 2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:0010-02 10:5310-02 12:2510-02 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:0079.0%54.4%45.9%71.5%
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:0079.0%54.4%45.9%71.5%
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:0079.0%54.4%45.9%71.5%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:0079.0%54.4%45.9%71.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single79%89.0°F5.6°F2026-10-02 00:00Pending
IFS HRES72%88.1°F6.3°F2026-10-02 00:00Pending
National Blend58%85.4°F4.4°F2026-10-02 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%84.9°F3.6°F2026-10-02 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 246%84.0°F4.9°F2026-10-02 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 02 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 85°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗