KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

28%

23%

<1%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.0¢Risks 50.05u

WN2NO 50.0¢Risks 49.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.95u · WN2 −49.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	2.8%	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	85.0%	—	80.7%	67.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	55.6%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	48.0%	59.4%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	60.4%	71.4%	14.1%	—	68.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	15.2%	54.4%	9.0%	—	70.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	65.6%	54.6%	7.3%	—	80.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	30.9%	73.9%	17.4%	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	21.8%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	65.5%	24.5%	3.0%	—	79.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	15.2%	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	38.8%	92.7%	1.2%	—	81.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	14.0%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	15.4%	—	7.3%	—	44.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	23.1%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	21.8%	26.3%	12.6%	49.0%	34.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	11.0%	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	18.3%	21.9%	12.8%	—	16.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	40.6%	32.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	26.4%	43.5%	1.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	35.7%	29.6%	1.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	18.3%	27.0%	1.2%	14.7%	2.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.2%	11.4%	7.8%	—	1.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.2%	8.5%	13.0%	—	2.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.2%	6.0%	0.2%	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.5%	7.9%	0.1%	6.5%	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.7%	8.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.5%	13.0%	0.1%	2.5%	0.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	89.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	80.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	76.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
ICON	23%	76.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	73.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 07 · 16:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗