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KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
28%
ICON
23%
AIFS
8%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.0¢Risks 50.05u
VS
WN2NO 50.0¢Risks 49.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.95u · WN2 −49.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-07T21:04:43+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T21:04:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.7% · 2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.7% · 2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.7% · 2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.7% · 2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.7% · 2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T21:04:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.7% · 2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-07T21:04:43+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00IFS HRES: 28.1% · 2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00ICON: 25.4% · 2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:00ICON: 25.4% · 2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00ICON: 25.4% · 2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00ICON: 25.4% · 2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-07T21:04:43+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:0010-07 16:3310-07 21:5010-08 02:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-07T16:33:12+00:009.8%99.6%6.1%28.8%25.4%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:009.8%99.6%0.7%28.8%25.4%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:009.8%99.6%0.7%28.8%25.4%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:009.8%99.6%0.7%28.8%25.4%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:007.0%99.6%0.7%28.1%23.0%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:007.0%99.6%0.7%28.1%23.0%
2026-10-07T21:04:43+00:007.0%99.6%0.7%28.1%23.0%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:007.0%99.6%0.7%28.1%23.0%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:007.0%99.6%0.7%28.1%23.0%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:007.0%99.7%0.4%28.1%23.1%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:007.0%99.7%0.4%28.1%23.1%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:007.0%99.7%0.4%28.1%23.1%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:007.6%99.7%0.4%28.1%23.1%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:007.6%99.7%0.4%28.1%23.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%89.1°F3.5°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%80.0°F3.9°F2026-10-07 15:00Pending
National Blend53%80.0°F7.7°F2026-10-07 06:00Pending
IFS HRES28%76.9°F4.5°F2026-10-07 12:00Pending
ICON23%76.6°F3.9°F2026-10-07 12:00Pending
AIFS Single8%73.3°F4.3°F2026-10-07 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%70.7°F3.4°F2026-10-07 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 07 · 16:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗