KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

34%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

AIFSNO 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +73.60u · AIFS −73.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	31.3%	—	25.7%	14.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	7.6%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	25.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	4.0%	7.2%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	6.7%	11.5%	0.2%	—	10.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	0.2%	4.2%	0.1%	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	6.5%	3.6%	0.0%	—	14.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	0.6%	8.7%	0.2%	—	11.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	4.5%	0.3%	0.0%	—	10.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	22.8%	0.0%	—	9.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	0.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	0.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	53%	89.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	86.0°F	9.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	88.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
ICON	2%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗