KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

34%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 26.4¢Risks 26.40u

AIFSNO 73.6¢Risks 73.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +73.60u · AIFS −73.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T08:04:27+00:00	44.3%	14.3%	18.3%	10.9%	26.2%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	44.3%	14.3%	18.3%	10.9%	26.2%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	44.3%	14.3%	18.3%	10.9%	26.2%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	44.3%	14.3%	18.3%	10.9%	26.2%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	44.3%	15.1%	18.0%	10.9%	26.2%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	44.3%	15.1%	18.0%	10.9%	26.2%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	44.3%	15.1%	18.0%	10.9%	26.2%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	44.3%	15.1%	18.0%	10.9%	26.2%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	29.5%	15.1%	18.0%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	29.5%	15.1%	18.0%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	29.5%	15.1%	18.0%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	29.5%	15.1%	18.0%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	29.5%	15.1%	11.5%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	29.5%	15.1%	11.5%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	29.5%	15.1%	11.5%	11.0%	26.2%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	34.0%	15.1%	11.5%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	34.0%	15.1%	11.5%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	34.0%	15.1%	11.5%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	34.0%	15.1%	11.5%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	34.0%	15.1%	11.5%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	34.0%	15.1%	23.2%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	34.0%	15.1%	23.2%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	34.0%	15.1%	23.2%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	51.4%	15.1%	23.2%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	51.4%	15.1%	23.2%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	51.4%	15.1%	23.2%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T03:43:02+00:00	51.4%	15.1%	23.2%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	51.4%	15.1%	23.2%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	51.4%	15.1%	17.4%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	51.4%	15.1%	17.4%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	51.4%	15.1%	17.4%	18.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	57.5%	15.1%	17.4%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	57.5%	15.1%	17.4%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	57.5%	15.1%	17.4%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	57.5%	15.1%	17.4%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	57.5%	15.1%	17.4%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	57.5%	18.2%	18.1%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	57.5%	18.2%	18.1%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	57.5%	18.2%	18.1%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	54.5%	18.2%	18.1%	4.2%	3.6%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	54.5%	18.4%	18.2%	4.2%	3.7%
2026-10-04T15:06:53+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	18.2%	4.2%	3.7%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	18.2%	4.2%	3.7%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	18.2%	4.2%	3.7%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	8.1%	4.2%	3.7%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	8.1%	4.2%	3.7%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	8.1%	4.2%	3.7%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	32.5%	19.0%	8.1%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	32.5%	19.0%	8.1%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	32.5%	19.0%	8.1%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	32.5%	19.0%	8.1%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	32.5%	19.0%	8.1%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	32.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	32.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	32.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	51.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	51.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	51.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	51.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	51.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	51.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	51.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	51.5%	19.0%	24.6%	49.4%	25.2%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	37.3%	19.0%	24.6%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	37.3%	19.0%	24.6%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	37.3%	19.0%	24.6%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	37.3%	19.0%	24.6%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	37.3%	19.0%	24.6%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	37.3%	25.5%	9.4%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00	37.3%	25.5%	9.4%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	37.3%	25.5%	9.4%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	0.0%	25.5%	9.4%	52.7%	4.0%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	0.0%	25.8%	9.5%	52.8%	4.1%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	0.0%	21.0%	9.5%	52.8%	4.1%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	0.0%	21.0%	9.5%	52.8%	4.1%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	0.0%	21.0%	9.5%	52.8%	4.1%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	0.0%	21.0%	0.1%	52.8%	4.1%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	0.0%	21.0%	0.1%	52.8%	4.1%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	0.0%	21.0%	0.1%	52.8%	4.1%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	35.7%	21.0%	0.1%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	35.7%	21.0%	0.1%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	35.7%	21.0%	0.1%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	35.7%	21.0%	0.1%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	35.7%	21.0%	0.1%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	35.7%	20.3%	4.0%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	35.7%	20.3%	4.0%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	35.7%	20.3%	4.0%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	4.0%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	4.0%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	4.0%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	4.0%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	6.9%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	6.9%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	6.9%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	10.0%	20.3%	6.9%	52.8%	16.3%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	0.9%	20.3%	6.9%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	0.9%	20.3%	6.9%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	0.9%	20.3%	6.9%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	0.9%	20.3%	6.9%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	0.9%	34.0%	0.3%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	0.9%	34.0%	0.3%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	0.9%	34.0%	0.3%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	0.9%	34.0%	0.3%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	0.0%	34.3%	0.3%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	0.0%	34.3%	0.3%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	0.0%	34.0%	0.3%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	0.0%	34.0%	0.3%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	0.0%	34.0%	0.0%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	0.0%	34.0%	0.0%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	0.0%	34.0%	0.0%	52.8%	1.9%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	0.0%	34.0%	0.0%	52.8%	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	53%	89.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	86.0°F	9.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	88.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
ICON	2%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗