KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

70%

34%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

WN2NO 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.15u · WN2 −56.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	10.3%	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	77.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	43.8%	83.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	65.2%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	28.2%	7.2%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	91.5%	38.9%	14.1%	—	85.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	7.6%	57.3%	30.4%	—	86.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	54.6%	4.4%	77.2%	—	79.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	43.6%	69.8%	22.4%	—	73.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	18.4%	—	63.1%	—	41.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.7%	23.9%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	24.8%	89.1%	30.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	5.5%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	3.6%	8.6%	8.6%	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	7.7%	9.6%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	26.3%	2.4%	17.1%	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	15.2%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	7.1%	0.4%	17.0%	4.0%	19.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	7.2%	5.0%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	19.0%	7.7%	13.7%	—	39.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	12.3%	1.2%	0.5%	—	47.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	11.6%	3.1%	40.8%	10.5%	48.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	5.1%	14.5%	29.3%	—	42.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	7.1%	55.0%	27.6%	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	12.8%	80.0%	42.3%	—	37.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	12.0%	14.1%	46.0%	0.4%	48.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	7.6%	45.8%	32.5%	—	51.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.7%	64.2%	19.1%	2.3%	42.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	68.9%	24.8%	—	36.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.7%	83.9%	22.6%	1.0%	25.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.4%	30.9%	5.3%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	77.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	70.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗