KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

70%

34%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.9¢Risks 43.85u

WN2NO 56.1¢Risks 56.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.15u · WN2 −56.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00	93.4%	94.0%	86.2%	37.8%	37.2%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	93.4%	94.0%	71.5%	37.8%	37.2%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	93.4%	94.0%	71.5%	37.8%	37.2%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	93.4%	94.0%	71.5%	37.8%	37.2%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	86.1%	94.0%	71.5%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	86.1%	94.0%	71.5%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	86.1%	94.0%	71.5%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	86.1%	94.0%	71.5%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	86.1%	94.0%	71.5%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	86.1%	71.1%	67.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	86.1%	71.1%	67.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	86.1%	71.1%	67.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	86.6%	71.1%	67.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	86.6%	71.0%	67.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	86.6%	71.0%	67.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00	86.6%	71.1%	67.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T16:33:13+00:00	86.6%	71.1%	67.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	86.6%	71.1%	45.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	86.6%	71.1%	45.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	86.6%	71.1%	45.7%	20.0%	36.8%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	50.0%	71.1%	45.7%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	50.0%	71.1%	45.7%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-07T21:04:44+00:00	50.0%	71.1%	45.7%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	50.0%	71.1%	45.7%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	50.0%	71.1%	45.7%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	50.0%	73.2%	31.3%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	50.0%	73.2%	31.3%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	50.0%	73.2%	31.3%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	31.6%	73.2%	31.3%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	31.6%	73.2%	31.3%	45.2%	9.2%
2026-10-08T15:15:58+00:00	39.1%	61.0%	28.6%	34.4%	30.6%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	39.1%	61.0%	28.6%	34.4%	30.6%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	39.1%	61.0%	28.6%	34.4%	30.6%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	39.1%	61.0%	28.6%	34.4%	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00	39.1%	61.0%	28.6%	34.4%	30.6%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	39.1%	61.0%	28.6%	34.4%	30.6%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	29.7%	61.0%	28.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	29.7%	61.0%	28.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	29.7%	61.0%	28.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	29.7%	61.0%	28.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	29.7%	61.0%	28.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	29.7%	62.9%	24.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	29.7%	62.9%	24.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	29.7%	62.9%	24.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	40.0%	62.9%	24.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	40.0%	62.9%	24.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00	40.0%	62.9%	24.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	40.0%	62.9%	24.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	40.0%	62.9%	24.6%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	40.0%	62.9%	34.9%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	40.0%	62.9%	34.9%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	40.0%	62.9%	34.9%	57.1%	9.8%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00	42.3%	62.9%	34.9%	59.7%	16.2%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	42.3%	62.9%	34.9%	59.7%	16.2%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	42.3%	62.9%	34.9%	59.7%	16.2%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	42.3%	62.9%	34.9%	59.7%	16.2%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00	42.3%	62.9%	34.9%	59.7%	16.2%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	42.3%	62.9%	34.9%	59.7%	16.2%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	42.3%	78.4%	34.9%	59.7%	16.2%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	42.3%	78.4%	34.9%	59.7%	16.2%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	46.1%	78.4%	34.9%	59.7%	16.3%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	46.1%	78.4%	34.9%	59.7%	16.3%
2026-10-10T04:17:02+00:00	36.7%	80.6%	28.1%	76.1%	10.8%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	36.7%	80.6%	18.3%	76.1%	10.8%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	36.7%	80.6%	18.3%	76.1%	10.8%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	36.7%	80.6%	18.3%	76.1%	10.8%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	36.7%	80.6%	18.3%	76.1%	10.8%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	33.5%	80.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	33.5%	80.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	33.5%	80.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	33.5%	80.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	33.5%	79.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	33.5%	79.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	33.5%	79.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	33.5%	79.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T14:04:55+00:00	31.7%	79.6%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T14:53:50+00:00	31.7%	80.4%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	31.7%	80.4%	18.3%	76.1%	4.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	31.7%	80.4%	18.3%	76.6%	4.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	31.7%	80.4%	7.1%	76.6%	4.7%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	31.7%	80.4%	7.1%	76.6%	4.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	31.7%	80.4%	7.1%	76.6%	4.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	39.1%	80.4%	7.1%	76.6%	9.1%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	39.1%	80.4%	7.1%	76.6%	9.1%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	39.1%	80.4%	7.1%	76.6%	9.1%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	39.1%	80.4%	7.1%	76.6%	9.1%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	39.1%	80.4%	7.1%	70.4%	9.1%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	39.1%	79.6%	8.1%	70.4%	9.1%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	39.1%	79.6%	8.1%	70.4%	9.1%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	39.1%	79.6%	8.1%	70.4%	9.1%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	34.4%	79.6%	8.1%	70.4%	9.1%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	34.4%	79.6%	8.1%	70.4%	9.1%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	34.4%	79.6%	8.1%	70.4%	9.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	77.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	70.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗