KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

72%

26%

25%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.2¢Risks 57.25u

ICONNO 42.8¢Risks 42.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.75u · ICON −42.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	6.3%	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	33.0%	75.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	78.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	52.6%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	18.0%	3.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	84.7%	26.3%	7.7%	—	76.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	3.6%	42.7%	18.9%	—	76.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	39.4%	1.8%	64.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	28.8%	54.8%	12.3%	—	58.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	1.7%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	9.3%	—	46.7%	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	12.8%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	13.1%	78.6%	17.2%	—	19.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	2.0%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	1.2%	3.4%	3.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	2.9%	3.8%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	13.1%	0.7%	7.5%	—	11.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	6.3%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.4%	0.1%	7.1%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	1.5%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	7.7%	2.4%	5.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	4.2%	0.2%	0.1%	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.8%	0.7%	20.7%	3.3%	27.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.3%	4.8%	12.6%	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.8%	30.9%	11.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.7%	57.7%	20.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.2%	4.0%	22.0%	0.0%	24.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.7%	21.1%	12.4%	—	25.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	35.8%	5.5%	0.3%	18.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	39.5%	7.5%	—	13.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	57.9%	6.1%	0.1%	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	9.2%	0.7%	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	84.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	81.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	78.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	79.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	72.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗