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KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
89%
AIFS
86%
WN2
72%
HRES
26%
ICON
25%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 57.2¢Risks 57.25u
VS
ICONNO 42.8¢Risks 42.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.75u · ICON −42.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00AIFS Single: 90.7% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00AIFS Single: 86.4% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 86.4% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 86.4% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.8% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.6% · 2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.6% · 2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.2% · 2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.2% · 2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.2% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.2% · 2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.2% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.2% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.2% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.2% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00IFS HRES: 72.8% · 2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00ICON: 47.3% · 2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00ICON: 47.3% · 2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00ICON: 47.3% · 2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00ICON: 47.3% · 2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00ICON: 47.3% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00ICON: 47.3% · 2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00ICON: 25.1% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:0010-06 15:2910-06 21:3210-07 03:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:0019.1%88.8%27.6%72.8%47.3%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:0019.1%88.8%27.6%72.8%47.3%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:0019.1%88.8%40.2%72.8%47.3%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:0019.1%88.8%40.2%72.8%47.3%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:0019.1%88.8%40.2%72.8%47.3%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:0019.1%88.8%40.2%72.8%47.3%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:0090.7%88.8%40.2%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:0090.7%88.8%40.2%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:0090.7%88.8%40.2%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:0090.7%88.8%40.2%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:0090.7%89.4%72.4%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:0090.7%89.4%72.4%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:0090.7%89.4%72.4%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:0090.7%89.4%72.4%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:0086.4%89.4%72.4%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:0086.4%89.4%72.4%25.6%25.1%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:0086.4%89.4%72.4%25.6%25.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble89%84.6°F6.5°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
AIFS Single86%81.9°F4.9°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 272%78.9°F4.0°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
National Blend63%79.0°F7.7°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F5.1°F2026-10-06 14:00Pending
IFS HRES26%72.7°F5.8°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
ICON25%72.6°F5.8°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗