KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

56%

44%

21%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

AIFSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.40u · AIFS −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	19.3%	60.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	33.6%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	7.7%	1.1%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	68.9%	12.2%	2.5%	—	57.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	0.9%	23.2%	7.6%	—	56.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	0.4%	41.7%	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	12.3%	31.6%	3.9%	—	35.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	2.6%	—	23.8%	—	10.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	3.8%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	3.8%	55.2%	5.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.3%	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	0.6%	0.6%	—	4.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.2%	0.1%	1.5%	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	1.2%	0.1%	1.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.2%	0.3%	0.7%	—	5.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	4.5%	0.3%	6.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	2.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	7.5%	1.6%	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	21.9%	3.5%	—	2.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	3.7%	0.0%	4.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	3.2%	1.4%	—	4.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.4%	0.0%	2.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	8.0%	0.5%	—	1.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	16.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	85.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	82.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	80.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending
ICON	44%	78.4°F	6.9°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	75.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	69.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 05 · 16:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗