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KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
89%
HRES
56%
ICON
44%
WN2
21%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u
VS
AIFSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.40u · AIFS −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.1% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.9% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.7% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00IFS HRES: 56.0% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:0010-05 16:0410-05 22:0610-06 03:22
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:003.5%89.1%37.9%56.0%8.4%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:003.5%89.1%37.9%56.0%8.4%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:003.5%89.1%14.0%56.0%8.4%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:003.5%89.1%14.0%56.0%8.4%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:003.5%89.1%14.0%56.0%8.4%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:005.0%89.1%14.0%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:005.0%89.1%14.0%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:005.0%89.1%14.0%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:005.0%89.1%14.0%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:005.0%89.1%14.0%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:005.0%88.7%20.7%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:005.0%88.7%20.7%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:005.0%88.7%20.7%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:002.5%88.7%20.7%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:002.5%88.7%20.7%56.0%43.6%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:002.5%88.7%20.7%56.0%43.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble89%85.2°F4.7°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
National Blend63%82.0°F7.7°F2026-10-05 06:00Pending
IFS HRES56%80.5°F6.6°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.8°F2026-10-05 15:00Pending
ICON44%78.4°F6.9°F2026-10-05 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 221%75.8°F4.5°F2026-10-05 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%69.1°F5.3°F2026-10-05 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 05 · 16:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗