KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 07 · 10:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

14%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.40u

HRESNO 74.6¢Risks 74.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.60u · HRES −74.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	5.7%	32.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	10.7%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.2%	0.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	34.9%	2.1%	0.2%	—	24.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	4.9%	0.9%	—	22.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.6%	0.0%	12.2%	—	13.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	6.9%	0.3%	—	8.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	0.1%	—	3.9%	—	1.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.2%	16.7%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.0%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	51%	84.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	79.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	75.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	72.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	70.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗