KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 07 · 10:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

14%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.40u

HRESNO 74.6¢Risks 74.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.60u · HRES −74.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T07:29:38+00:00	7.5%	49.3%	28.6%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	7.5%	49.3%	28.6%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	7.5%	49.3%	28.6%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	7.5%	49.3%	28.6%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	7.5%	49.3%	28.6%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	7.5%	56.2%	31.2%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	7.5%	56.2%	31.2%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	7.5%	56.2%	31.2%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	27.7%	56.2%	31.2%	4.4%	16.9%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	27.7%	56.2%	31.3%	4.5%	17.2%
2026-10-04T15:06:53+00:00	27.7%	56.4%	31.3%	4.5%	17.2%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	27.7%	56.4%	31.3%	4.5%	17.2%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	27.7%	56.4%	31.3%	4.5%	17.2%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00	27.7%	56.4%	23.2%	4.5%	17.2%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	27.7%	56.4%	23.2%	4.5%	17.2%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	27.7%	56.4%	23.2%	4.5%	17.2%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	5.5%	56.4%	23.2%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	5.5%	56.4%	23.2%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	5.5%	56.4%	23.2%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	5.5%	56.4%	23.2%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	5.5%	56.4%	23.2%	50.6%	58.1%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	5.5%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	5.5%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	5.5%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	2.8%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	2.8%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	2.8%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	2.8%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	2.8%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	2.8%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	2.8%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	2.8%	56.4%	22.0%	51.3%	58.1%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	5.4%	56.4%	22.0%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	5.4%	56.4%	22.0%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	5.4%	56.4%	22.0%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	5.4%	56.4%	22.0%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	5.4%	56.4%	22.0%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	5.4%	63.0%	7.8%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	5.4%	63.0%	7.8%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	5.4%	63.0%	7.8%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	0.3%	63.0%	7.8%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	0.3%	63.0%	7.9%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	0.3%	56.7%	7.9%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	0.3%	56.7%	7.9%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	0.3%	56.7%	7.9%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	0.3%	56.7%	1.5%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	0.3%	56.7%	1.5%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	0.3%	56.7%	1.5%	27.2%	1.8%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	0.5%	56.7%	1.5%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	0.5%	56.7%	1.5%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	0.5%	56.7%	1.5%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	0.5%	56.7%	1.5%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	0.5%	56.7%	1.5%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	0.5%	55.9%	2.7%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	0.5%	55.9%	2.7%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	0.5%	55.9%	2.7%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	0.2%	55.9%	2.7%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	0.2%	55.9%	2.7%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	0.2%	55.9%	2.7%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00	0.2%	55.9%	2.7%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	0.2%	55.9%	4.1%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	0.2%	55.9%	4.1%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	0.2%	55.9%	4.1%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	0.2%	55.9%	4.1%	27.2%	18.8%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	0.1%	55.9%	4.1%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	0.1%	55.9%	4.1%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	0.1%	55.9%	4.1%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	0.1%	55.9%	4.1%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	0.1%	50.0%	0.5%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	0.1%	50.0%	0.5%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	0.1%	50.0%	0.5%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	0.1%	50.0%	0.5%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	0.6%	50.0%	0.5%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	0.6%	50.0%	0.5%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	0.6%	49.4%	0.5%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	0.6%	49.4%	0.5%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	0.6%	49.4%	1.3%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	0.6%	49.4%	1.3%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	0.6%	49.4%	1.3%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	0.6%	49.4%	1.3%	27.2%	7.4%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	38.0%	49.4%	1.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	38.0%	49.4%	1.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	38.0%	49.4%	1.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	38.0%	49.4%	1.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	38.0%	50.6%	8.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	38.0%	50.6%	8.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	38.0%	50.6%	8.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	38.0%	50.6%	8.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	29.8%	50.6%	8.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	29.8%	50.6%	8.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	29.8%	50.6%	8.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T04:20:11+00:00	29.8%	50.6%	8.3%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	29.8%	50.6%	2.8%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	29.8%	50.6%	2.8%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	29.8%	50.6%	2.8%	2.1%	2.0%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	13.9%	50.6%	2.8%	0.2%	0.7%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	13.9%	50.6%	2.8%	0.2%	0.7%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	13.9%	50.6%	2.8%	0.2%	0.7%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	13.9%	50.6%	2.8%	0.2%	0.7%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	13.9%	50.6%	2.8%	0.2%	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	51%	84.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	79.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	75.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	72.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	70.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗