KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

93%

82%

64%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

HRESNO 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.65u · HRES −19.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	41.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	22.4%	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	26.2%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	25.4%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	33.6%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	1.1%	27.7%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	10.9%	50.7%	23.0%	—	61.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	34.3%	6.2%	67.0%	—	54.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	91.3%	—	10.3%	—	54.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	92.8%	92.2%	88.1%	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	0.6%	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	89.9%	92.3%	87.1%	—	57.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	61.8%	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	88.7%	89.5%	85.9%	—	63.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	92.5%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	82.2%	89.8%	93.4%	—	83.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	93.0%	94.7%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	96.6%	95.8%	96.6%	—	94.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	97.9%	94.6%	—	—	94.3%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	95.1%	96.2%	95.6%	0.0%	93.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	91.6%	96.5%	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	94.4%	98.0%	89.1%	—	95.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	94.6%	99.0%	0.0%	—	94.3%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	93.2%	99.3%	96.5%	—	93.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	91.8%	99.5%	96.0%	—	95.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	86.3%	99.6%	96.7%	80.9%	95.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	87.2%	99.7%	96.5%	—	90.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	89.3%	99.8%	96.5%	80.9%	91.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	92.9%	99.5%	97.5%	—	95.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	96.3%	99.5%	98.2%	84.6%	97.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	98.0%	99.7%	97.1%	—	95.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	98.5%	99.9%	96.3%	88.3%	98.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	100.0%	100.0%	98.7%	—	99.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	88.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	86.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
ICON	93%	88.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	83.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	81.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗