KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 08 · 02:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

93%

82%

64%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

HRESNO 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.65u · HRES −19.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T04:20:12+00:00	97.2%	65.8%	97.0%	50.0%	93.5%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	97.2%	65.8%	96.5%	50.0%	93.5%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	97.2%	65.8%	96.5%	50.0%	93.5%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	97.2%	65.8%	96.5%	50.0%	93.5%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	98.2%	65.8%	96.5%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	98.2%	65.8%	96.5%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	98.2%	65.8%	96.5%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	98.2%	65.8%	96.5%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	98.2%	65.8%	96.5%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	98.2%	79.8%	97.9%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	98.2%	79.8%	97.9%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	98.2%	79.8%	97.9%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	97.9%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	97.8%	79.5%	97.9%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	97.8%	79.5%	97.9%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T15:47:46+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	97.9%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T16:33:13+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	97.9%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	97.2%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	97.2%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	97.2%	88.0%	95.2%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	97.6%	79.8%	97.2%	63.5%	92.8%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	97.6%	79.8%	97.2%	63.5%	92.8%
2026-10-07T21:04:44+00:00	97.6%	79.8%	97.2%	63.5%	92.8%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	97.6%	79.8%	97.2%	63.5%	92.8%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	97.6%	79.8%	97.2%	63.5%	92.8%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	97.6%	81.6%	96.5%	63.5%	93.0%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	97.6%	81.6%	96.5%	63.5%	93.0%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	97.6%	81.6%	96.5%	63.5%	93.0%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	97.2%	81.6%	96.5%	63.5%	93.0%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	97.2%	81.6%	96.5%	63.5%	93.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	88.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	86.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
ICON	93%	88.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	83.5°F	4.4°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	81.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-07 15:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗