KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

61%

56%

46%

25%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.1¢Risks 49.10u

AIFSNO 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.90u · AIFS −50.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	5.6%	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	7.1%	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	1.8%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	25.4%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	50.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	4.7%	9.3%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	63.1%	—	1.3%	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	80.6%	69.0%	44.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	58.3%	62.0%	28.3%	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	34.5%	77.0%	58.7%	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	10.6%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	80.5%	77.5%	67.8%	—	59.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	72.6%	82.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	85.9%	79.2%	67.0%	—	65.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	85.0%	72.9%	—	—	49.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	84.0%	74.1%	69.5%	—	58.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	82.3%	74.7%	—	—	65.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	80.3%	78.2%	70.4%	—	66.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	82.3%	83.6%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	80.3%	86.6%	70.6%	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	66.5%	86.2%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	56.5%	88.1%	60.8%	0.0%	63.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	55.6%	91.3%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	53.5%	92.8%	63.7%	79.3%	58.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	63.0%	93.4%	63.0%	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	73.4%	94.1%	61.1%	0.0%	62.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	74.1%	94.0%	59.0%	—	51.3%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	68.1%	96.0%	55.4%	81.8%	51.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	86.1%	94.2%	58.3%	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	94.9%	94.9%	62.8%	93.2%	69.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	95.9%	97.1%	63.3%	—	60.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	95.2%	96.6%	66.8%	96.3%	73.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	97.9%	98.1%	83.0%	—	90.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	73%	90.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	86.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	85.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	85.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	84.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	80.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 06 · 20:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 85°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗