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KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
73%
HRES
61%
WN2
56%
EPS
46%
AIFS
25%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 49.1¢Risks 49.10u
VS
AIFSNO 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.90u · AIFS −50.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.8% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.4% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.4% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.4% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.4% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.4% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.4% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.4% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 61.1% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00ICON: 73.4% · 2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:0010-06 20:0110-06 23:4810-07 03:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:0050.0%44.8%38.8%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:0050.0%44.8%38.8%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:0050.0%44.8%38.8%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:0050.0%44.8%38.8%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:0050.0%46.5%56.4%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:0050.0%46.5%56.4%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:0050.0%46.5%56.4%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:0050.0%46.5%56.4%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:0024.8%46.5%56.4%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:0024.8%46.5%56.4%61.1%73.4%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:0024.8%46.5%56.4%61.1%73.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON73%90.6°F9.8°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
IFS HRES61%86.3°F6.4°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 256%85.3°F4.9°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
National Blend53%85.0°F7.6°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%84.1°F4.6°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
AIFS Single25%80.7°F5.6°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 06 · 20:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 85°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗