KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

71%

66%

54%

49%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.5¢Risks 61.50u

EPSNO 38.5¢Risks 38.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.50u · EPS −38.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	22.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	10.4%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	0.0%	41.9%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	5.6%	63.1%	3.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	55.1%	57.3%	0.4%	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	59.8%	54.6%	11.0%	—	7.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	27.4%	72.6%	20.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	5.1%	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	45.0%	43.4%	35.3%	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	23.3%	44.9%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	29.1%	33.8%	28.4%	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	34.2%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	36.4%	65.3%	27.4%	—	32.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	6.7%	63.0%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	47.1%	71.3%	34.8%	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	46.0%	64.7%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	49.0%	64.1%	41.8%	—	31.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	51.1%	64.5%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	64.9%	71.8%	34.1%	29.2%	39.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	65.4%	72.4%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	62.6%	75.8%	34.1%	15.3%	33.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	60.7%	78.4%	37.0%	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	76.4%	84.1%	26.6%	80.1%	42.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	77.2%	78.1%	28.0%	—	34.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	80.0%	80.9%	29.5%	51.3%	39.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	85.3%	76.8%	26.5%	—	41.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	87.0%	75.5%	34.5%	77.8%	52.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	93.0%	78.7%	6.5%	—	47.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	93.4%	84.8%	40.6%	45.3%	53.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	94.7%	87.7%	54.9%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	90.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	90.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	90.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	90.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
ICON	54%	88.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	88.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗