KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

71%

66%

54%

49%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.5¢Risks 61.50u

EPSNO 38.5¢Risks 38.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.50u · EPS −38.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	74.9%	50.8%	63.3%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	74.9%	50.8%	63.3%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	74.9%	50.8%	63.3%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	67.6%	50.8%	63.3%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	67.6%	50.8%	63.3%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	67.6%	50.8%	63.3%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	67.6%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	67.6%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	67.6%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	67.6%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	51.7%	50.0%	67.6%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	51.7%	43.4%	74.9%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	51.7%	43.4%	74.9%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	51.7%	43.4%	74.9%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	66.8%	43.4%	74.9%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	66.8%	43.4%	74.9%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	66.8%	43.4%	74.9%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	66.8%	43.4%	74.9%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	66.8%	43.4%	74.9%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	66.8%	43.4%	80.5%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	66.8%	43.4%	80.5%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	66.8%	43.4%	80.5%	54.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	67.0%	43.4%	80.5%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	67.0%	43.4%	80.5%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	67.0%	43.4%	80.5%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	67.0%	43.4%	80.5%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	67.0%	43.4%	80.5%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	67.0%	43.4%	74.3%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	67.0%	48.7%	74.3%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	67.0%	48.7%	74.3%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	71.1%	48.7%	74.3%	65.6%	54.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	71.1%	48.7%	74.3%	65.6%	54.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	90.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	90.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	90.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	90.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
ICON	54%	88.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	88.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗