KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

53%

46%

36%

14%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

ICONNO 57.8¢Risks 57.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.75u · ICON −57.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	2.5%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	40.9%	25.7%	13.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	66.3%	61.6%	52.2%	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	84.0%	67.0%	59.8%	—	51.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	70.5%	75.8%	50.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	2.4%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	70.0%	76.2%	36.9%	—	41.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	49.1%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	59.6%	69.3%	16.1%	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	58.0%	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	40.0%	60.9%	17.8%	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	39.7%	56.6%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	45.1%	51.0%	12.6%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	36.3%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	37.8%	55.1%	7.4%	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	35.5%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	31.1%	38.2%	11.4%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	31.5%	31.5%	0.0%	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	32.0%	43.0%	8.1%	—	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	29.3%	42.8%	9.7%	—	24.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	23.6%	47.5%	6.3%	26.6%	19.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	23.8%	59.0%	4.6%	—	17.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	20.0%	63.2%	8.4%	26.2%	15.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	27.6%	66.2%	4.7%	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	38.6%	75.5%	11.5%	35.8%	21.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	67.5%	6.0%	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	39.1%	68.3%	4.8%	36.1%	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	45.1%	71.9%	11.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	70.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	68.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	68.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	67.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗