KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

53%

46%

36%

14%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.2¢Risks 42.25u

ICONNO 57.8¢Risks 57.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.75u · ICON −57.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	23.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	23.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	23.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	52.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	52.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:32+00:00	52.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	52.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	52.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	52.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	52.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	52.1%	65.3%	50.0%	88.2%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	71.6%	65.3%	50.0%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	71.6%	65.3%	50.0%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	71.6%	65.3%	50.0%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	71.6%	65.3%	50.0%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	71.6%	65.3%	50.0%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	71.6%	57.0%	72.8%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	71.6%	57.0%	72.8%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	71.6%	57.0%	72.8%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	80.5%	57.0%	72.8%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	80.5%	57.0%	72.8%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	80.5%	57.0%	72.8%	79.4%	62.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	53.0%	70.5%	30.3%	36.3%	14.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	53.0%	70.5%	45.9%	36.3%	14.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	53.0%	70.5%	45.9%	36.3%	14.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	53.0%	70.5%	45.9%	36.3%	14.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	53.0%	70.5%	45.9%	36.3%	14.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	70.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	69.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	68.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	68.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	67.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗