KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

44%

40%

36%

22%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 39.8¢Risks 39.75u

AIFSNO 60.2¢Risks 60.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.25u · AIFS −60.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	17.5%	8.7%	3.6%	—	20.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	37.8%	33.0%	24.9%	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	59.1%	37.2%	30.3%	—	23.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	39.7%	46.0%	21.8%	—	21.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	0.2%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	37.7%	45.0%	12.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	19.0%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	26.2%	35.4%	3.1%	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	24.2%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	11.9%	25.9%	3.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.3%	21.7%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	13.6%	17.1%	1.7%	—	3.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	8.8%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	9.0%	18.3%	0.7%	—	4.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	7.6%	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	5.6%	8.1%	1.1%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	5.4%	5.4%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	5.1%	9.0%	0.5%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	4.0%	8.2%	0.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.5%	9.5%	0.3%	3.0%	1.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.2%	14.3%	0.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.4%	15.7%	0.3%	2.4%	0.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.3%	16.4%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.0%	22.2%	0.4%	3.5%	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.4%	14.4%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.1%	13.4%	0.1%	2.6%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	14.1%	0.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	73.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	71.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	71.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	70.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗