KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

44%

40%

36%

22%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 39.8¢Risks 39.75u

AIFSNO 60.2¢Risks 60.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.25u · AIFS −60.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:45+00:00	44.0%	34.6%	56.9%	39.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	44.0%	34.6%	55.2%	39.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	44.0%	34.6%	55.2%	39.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	44.0%	34.6%	55.2%	39.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	44.0%	34.6%	55.2%	39.8%	74.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:15+00:00	38.8%	34.6%	55.2%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	38.8%	34.6%	55.2%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	38.8%	34.6%	55.2%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	38.8%	34.6%	55.2%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	38.8%	40.1%	35.7%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	38.8%	40.1%	35.7%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	38.8%	40.1%	35.7%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	38.8%	40.1%	35.7%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	34.3%	40.1%	35.8%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	34.3%	40.1%	35.8%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	34.3%	40.1%	35.8%	39.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	34.3%	40.1%	35.8%	39.9%	58.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	34.3%	40.1%	32.2%	39.9%	58.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	34.3%	40.1%	32.2%	39.9%	58.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	34.3%	40.1%	32.2%	39.9%	58.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	39.6%	40.1%	32.2%	39.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	39.6%	40.1%	32.2%	39.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	39.6%	40.1%	32.2%	39.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	39.6%	40.1%	32.2%	39.9%	57.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	39.6%	40.1%	32.2%	36.6%	57.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	39.6%	44.0%	39.5%	36.4%	57.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	39.6%	44.0%	39.5%	36.4%	57.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	39.6%	44.0%	39.5%	36.4%	57.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	22.1%	44.0%	39.5%	36.4%	57.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	22.1%	44.0%	39.5%	36.4%	57.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	73.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	71.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	71.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	70.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗