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KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
22%
HRES
4%
AIFS
2%
WN2
2%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 11.8¢Risks 11.80u
VS
EPSNO 88.2¢Risks 88.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.20u · EPS −88.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 06:0010-11 00:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.9%————0.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:000.6%————4.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:008.7%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.2%————10.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:003.2%————3.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:001.0%————2.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.1%————2.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%————1.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:002.2%————1.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0055.9%————2.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0054.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0016.4%————1.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:007.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:006.8%————0.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%————0.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——2.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——1.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%——1.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——0.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%—0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.0%—0.4%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.7%1.6%1.1%0.6%—0.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.4%—1.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%4.6%1.3%0.8%—0.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.3%—1.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.1%1.2%1.8%0.3%—0.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%1.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.8%1.3%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%1.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.5%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON22%77.2°F7.0°F2026-10-12 12:00Pending
National Blend4%73.0°F5.5°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%70.8°F6.6°F2026-10-12 12:00Pending
NWS forecast3%73.0°F5.1°F2026-10-13 03:00Pending
AIFS Single2%71.7°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%73.1°F4.6°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%70.4°F5.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗