KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.8¢Risks 11.80u

EPSNO 88.2¢Risks 88.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.20u · EPS −88.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:56+00:00	0.1%	9.0%	2.7%	15.3%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	0.1%	9.0%	2.7%	15.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	0.1%	9.0%	2.7%	15.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	0.1%	9.0%	2.7%	15.3%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00	0.1%	9.0%	2.7%	15.3%	—
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	2.7%	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	2.7%	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	2.7%	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	5.0%	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	5.0%	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	5.0%	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T04:01:19+00:00	5.0%	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	5.0%	1.9%	1.3%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	5.0%	1.9%	2.2%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	5.0%	1.9%	2.2%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	5.0%	1.9%	2.2%	8.3%	13.7%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	2.2%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	2.2%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	2.2%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	2.2%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	2.2%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	3.9%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	3.2%	1.3%	3.9%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	3.2%	1.3%	3.9%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	2.1%	1.3%	3.9%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	2.1%	1.3%	4.0%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T15:26:54+00:00	2.1%	1.3%	4.0%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	2.1%	1.4%	4.0%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	2.1%	1.4%	1.7%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	2.1%	1.4%	1.7%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	2.1%	1.4%	1.7%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	2.1%	1.4%	1.7%	6.2%	12.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	1.7%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	1.7%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	1.7%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	1.7%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	2.2%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	2.2%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	2.4%	1.4%	2.2%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	2.4%	1.1%	2.2%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	2.2%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	2.2%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	2.2%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:46+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	2.2%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	2.0%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	2.0%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	2.0%	3.7%	22.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	2.0%	3.7%	22.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	22%	77.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	73.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	70.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	73.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	71.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	73.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	70.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗