KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

73%

68%

56%

55%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 72.5¢Risks 72.55u

WN2NO 27.4¢Risks 27.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.45u · WN2 −27.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	25.7%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	11.1%	78.2%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	43.0%	19.9%	24.1%	—	51.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	70.3%	47.8%	44.9%	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	71.1%	40.2%	22.8%	—	54.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	62.5%	80.0%	45.2%	—	37.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	4.9%	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	59.1%	81.0%	40.9%	—	27.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	55.1%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	67.0%	58.7%	32.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	68.2%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	66.1%	52.8%	19.6%	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	69.1%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	61.5%	54.9%	14.2%	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	60.9%	49.0%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	57.2%	56.1%	11.8%	—	51.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	61.5%	58.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	58.7%	60.8%	9.4%	0.0%	47.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	56.7%	68.5%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	57.0%	66.9%	15.3%	51.2%	46.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	64.1%	66.4%	14.5%	—	52.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	75.4%	68.0%	15.1%	0.0%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	70.9%	67.5%	15.0%	—	46.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	69.3%	63.2%	14.1%	51.3%	40.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	68.8%	63.7%	13.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	72.0%	70.7%	13.0%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	74.0%	74.0%	9.2%	—	21.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	63.9%	62.4%	6.1%	45.3%	27.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	67.6%	71.9%	18.1%	—	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	74.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	56%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	70.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗