KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

73%

68%

56%

55%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 72.5¢Risks 72.55u

WN2NO 27.4¢Risks 27.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.45u · WN2 −27.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	74.5%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	82.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	74.5%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	82.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	74.5%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	82.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	74.5%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	82.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	74.5%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	82.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	74.5%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	82.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	81.3%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	76.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	81.3%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	76.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	81.3%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	76.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	81.3%	74.9%	82.6%	72.9%	76.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	81.3%	74.9%	82.6%	35.8%	76.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	81.3%	66.7%	75.2%	35.8%	76.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	81.3%	66.7%	75.2%	35.8%	76.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	81.3%	66.7%	75.2%	35.8%	76.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	74.8%	66.7%	75.2%	35.8%	76.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	74.7%	66.7%	75.2%	35.8%	76.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	70.0%	70.6%	66.0%	57.6%	73.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	70.0%	70.6%	66.0%	57.6%	73.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	70.0%	70.6%	68.7%	57.6%	73.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	70.0%	70.6%	68.7%	57.6%	73.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	70.0%	70.6%	68.7%	57.6%	73.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	77.7%	70.6%	68.7%	70.5%	77.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	77.7%	70.6%	68.7%	70.5%	77.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	77.7%	70.6%	68.7%	70.5%	77.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	77.7%	70.6%	68.7%	70.5%	77.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	77.7%	70.6%	68.7%	70.5%	77.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	77.7%	70.6%	68.6%	70.5%	77.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	77.7%	77.6%	68.6%	70.5%	77.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	77.7%	77.6%	68.6%	70.5%	77.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	79.6%	77.6%	68.6%	70.5%	77.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	79.6%	77.6%	68.6%	70.5%	77.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	64.4%	81.0%	64.7%	71.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	64.4%	81.0%	63.7%	71.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	64.4%	81.0%	63.7%	71.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	64.4%	81.0%	63.7%	71.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	69.6%	81.0%	63.7%	71.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	69.6%	81.0%	63.7%	71.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	69.6%	81.0%	63.7%	71.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	69.6%	81.0%	63.7%	71.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	69.6%	81.0%	63.7%	71.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	69.6%	85.0%	60.5%	71.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	69.6%	85.0%	60.5%	71.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	69.6%	85.0%	60.5%	71.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	73.6%	85.0%	60.5%	72.0%	68.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	73.6%	84.9%	60.5%	72.0%	68.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	73.6%	84.9%	60.5%	72.0%	68.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	73.6%	85.0%	60.5%	72.0%	68.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	73.6%	85.0%	60.5%	72.0%	68.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	73.6%	85.0%	61.7%	72.0%	68.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	73.6%	85.0%	61.7%	72.0%	68.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	73.6%	85.0%	61.7%	72.0%	68.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	72.0%	85.0%	61.7%	72.0%	63.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	72.0%	85.0%	61.7%	72.0%	63.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	72.0%	85.0%	61.7%	72.0%	63.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	72.0%	85.0%	61.7%	72.0%	63.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	72.0%	85.0%	61.7%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	72.0%	87.8%	62.8%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	72.0%	87.8%	62.8%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	72.0%	87.8%	62.8%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	74.4%	87.8%	62.8%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	74.4%	87.8%	62.8%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	74.4%	87.8%	62.8%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	74.4%	87.8%	62.8%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	74.4%	87.8%	62.8%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	74.4%	87.8%	59.4%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	74.4%	87.8%	59.4%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	74.4%	87.8%	59.4%	74.2%	63.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00	75.4%	87.8%	59.4%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	75.4%	87.8%	59.4%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00	75.4%	87.8%	59.4%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	75.4%	87.8%	59.4%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	75.4%	87.8%	59.4%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	75.4%	90.4%	55.1%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	75.4%	90.4%	55.1%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	75.4%	90.4%	55.1%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	73.0%	90.4%	55.1%	67.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	73.1%	90.0%	55.1%	67.8%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	74.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	56%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	70.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗