KBNA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

53%

49%

49%

49%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 28.82u

AIFSNO 42.4¢Risks 21.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.18u · AIFS −21.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	9.0%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	52.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	5.3%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	3.0%	25.4%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	24.6%	46.5%	7.7%	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	16.1%	39.9%	12.8%	—	16.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	7.3%	31.6%	4.2%	—	12.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	34.1%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	24.8%	33.7%	5.1%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	0.1%	37.2%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	24.5%	28.6%	2.5%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	11.9%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	26.2%	27.7%	2.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	25.7%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	19.0%	28.2%	2.2%	—	6.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	25.3%	33.5%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	22.5%	34.8%	2.4%	12.1%	11.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	28.2%	—	—	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	80.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	79.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	78.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	78.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	78.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 79°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗