KBNA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

53%

49%

49%

49%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 28.82u

AIFSNO 42.4¢Risks 21.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.18u · AIFS −21.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	60.4%	44.0%	74.8%	38.4%	25.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	60.3%	44.0%	74.8%	38.4%	25.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	60.3%	45.3%	74.8%	38.4%	25.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	60.3%	45.3%	74.8%	38.4%	25.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	60.3%	45.3%	74.8%	38.4%	25.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	60.3%	45.3%	72.2%	38.4%	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	60.3%	45.3%	72.2%	38.4%	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	60.3%	45.3%	72.2%	38.4%	25.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	49.3%	45.3%	72.2%	38.4%	52.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	49.3%	45.3%	72.2%	38.4%	52.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	49.3%	45.3%	72.2%	38.4%	52.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	49.3%	45.3%	72.2%	38.4%	52.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	49.3%	45.3%	72.2%	49.4%	52.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:28+00:00	49.3%	48.8%	66.7%	49.4%	52.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	49.3%	48.8%	66.7%	49.4%	52.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	49.3%	48.8%	66.7%	49.4%	52.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	48.6%	48.8%	66.7%	49.4%	52.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	48.6%	48.8%	66.7%	49.4%	52.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	48.6%	48.8%	66.7%	49.4%	52.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	48.6%	48.8%	66.7%	49.4%	52.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	80.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	79.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	78.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	78.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	78.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 79°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗