KBNA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

28%

16%

13%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.8¢Risks 9.88u

EPSNO 80.2¢Risks 40.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.12u · EPS −40.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	5.1%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	2.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	15.9%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	14.9%	33.0%	3.8%	—	21.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	8.7%	26.6%	6.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	3.3%	19.5%	1.8%	—	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	14.0%	20.6%	2.1%	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	23.1%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	13.4%	16.2%	0.9%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	5.4%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	14.1%	15.1%	0.8%	—	6.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	13.5%	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	9.0%	14.9%	0.7%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	12.7%	18.4%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	10.7%	19.0%	0.7%	4.9%	4.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	14.0%	—	—	2.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	28%	78.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	78.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	76.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	76.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	76.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗